WELCOME TO THE WISCONSIN PROSPERITY PROJECT

2010 Election Landscape Data

Governors 

  • Current breakdown:  26 D, 23 R, 1 Indep.
  • On ballot:  37 (19 D, 17 R, 1 Indep.)
  • Not running again:  24:  12D, 11 R, 1 Indep.
  • Net gain for GOP to hold majority of states:  3
  • Average loss for party in control of White House first off-year:  5.5
  • Fewest number of nonincumbents needed to win for GOP to hold 26 states:  14

Senate 

  • Current breakdown:  57 D, 41 R, 2 Independents who caucus with D
  • On ballot:  37 (18 R, 19 D)
  • Not running again:  15 (8 R, 7 D)
  • Net gain for GOP to hold majority of 100 seats:  10
  • Average loss for party in control of White House first off-year:  4/10 of one seat
  • Fewest number of nonincumbents needed to win for GOP to hold 51 seats:  18
  • At least one-third of the 112th Senate will be serving in their first term
  • Democrats need to win 10 seats to retain control at 50 seats with the vice president breaking the tie
  • If all Democrats lost, the party would have 40 seats in the 112th Congress

House 

  • Current breakdown:  255 D, 178 R, 1 D/1 R vacancies to be filled in special elections
  • Not running again:  43:  23 R, 20 D
  • Net gain for GOP to hold majority of 435 seats:  39
  • Average loss for party in control of White House first off-year:  16
  • Fewest number of nonincumbents needed to win for GOP to hold 218 seats:  62
  • Number departing from Energy and Commerce:  9 (6R, 3 D)
  • Number departing from Ways and Means:  5 (3 D, 2 R)
  • Delegations with multiple departures (3 or more):  AR, FL, KS, MI, SC, TN
  • Number of Democrats voting against both health care bills and climate change:  20
  • Reapportionment/redistricting changes anticipated before 2012 elections:  shift of 14 seats
  • Projected gains in reapportionment:  AZ, FL, GA, NV, NC, OR, SC, TX, UT, WA
  • Projected losses in reapportionment:  CA, IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NY, OH, PA, WI

President 

  • Electoral College votes needed to win:  270
  • Number for President Barack Obama:  365
  • States Obama could have lost and still had 270:  CO, FL, IN, OH, NC, VA
  • Anticipated shifts based on Census/reapportionment:  net - 7 in Obama-carried states

Calendar 

  • Primaries completed:  42
  • Primaries after Labor Day:  8
  • Early voting begins for general election:  September 23

9/1/10