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Framework for Evaluating 2009/2010 Elections 

Overall Factors

• Involvement of 2006/2008 first-time voters
• Attitude of “economy” voters to stock market metrics
• Role of White House in outreach to universal electorate
• Activity of business groups aimed at employees, retirees, shareholders
• Adaptation of presidential communications tools to other campaigns
• Impact of public mood on behavior of elected officials

Gubernatorial Races

• Extent to which 2008 outcomes affect 2009/2010 mindset
• Upheaval in one party strongholds
• Number of open races in comparison to other cycles
• Number of appointed incumbents
• Profile of vulnerable incumbents
• Number of departures
• Compatibility of business/partisan objectives

Senate Races

• Number of races in comparison to other cycles
• Number of appointed incumbents
• Profile of vulnerable incumbents
• Number of departures
• Compatibility of business/partisan objectives

House Races

• Targets of opportunity
• Audiences in play
• Image of institution
• Number of open seats
• Variety of issues voters want addressed
• Role of third party candidates
• Realignment on key committees

State Legislative/Ballot Races

• Impact on turnout
• Audiences in play
• Role of advocacy groups
• Diversion of resources
• Attention of media